The aim or mission of this thread is to assist anyone interested in 'making the most' out of the coming crisis (transforming adversity to plenty). The focus will concentrate on the physical/financial. Of course, in order to accomplish this with excellence, we will all be required to do our 'inner work' in order to overcome our fear based attachments to old methods and perceptions.
It promises to be increasingly a time of upheaval and chaos. Wild dogs thrive in this type of environment, hence the title!
What we expect, generally speaking, is some kind of unwinding of DEBT!
Now, debts are obligations owed TO some, BY some. So first, who owes whom here. Well, most simply put, the (relatively) poor owe the (relatively) rich, correct? THIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE SITUATION, of course. What's different Now?
It is our contention that the present situation is one where GREED has taken complete control of the 'rich' among us, and this has created, over time, an untenable unballanced situation. The spring has been wound too tight, and this will create an uncontrollable unwinding.
Economics: The social science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services and with the theory and management of economies or economic systems.
Apocalypse: Great or total devastation; doom: the apocalypse of nuclear war. A prophetic disclosure; a revelation.
Armageddon: The scene of a final battle between the forces of good and evil, prophesied to occur at the end of the world. A decisive or catastrophic conflict.
The world stands today at the brink of an economic precipice unlike anything it has ever faced in the entire history of mankind. Circumstances are already in place which will propel a leap into the chasm pushed by the greed of men in positions of power and influence; men in financial institutions determined to squeeze every last dime of profit from their financial trading activities; men that have devised new ways to manipulate the financial systems to their benefit so they may profit ever more greatly. These events will cause the collapse of entire financial institutions, the cessation of global economic activity, and the total debasement of all nations' currencies, leading to a world of anarchy and chaos too horrible to contemplate. It is not a question of "If" this collapse will occur, it is only a question of "When." The outcome of such a collapse will create an environment like nothing experienced before in human history.
A singularly certain outcome will be the failure of paper money to function as an instrument of exchange. In its place, hard metals with intrinsic value, such as gold and silver, will once again, as they did centuries ago, provide the basis of value for commercial and personal financial transactions. Once the collapse begins, none of the world's financial institutions or central banks will be able to slow it, never mind stop it. Because of the instantaneous and interconnected nature of global financial trading and communication systems, and also due to the extremely risky nature of existing financial instruments, economic and financial collapse will be nearly instantaneous. Unrecognized for what it is until it is too late to intervene, the unraveling of the intertwined global financial infrastructure will occur regardless of any attempted interventions. Such actions will be futile, unable to accomplish the intended result of arresting the financial calamity. Such an event is scary, frightening and completely unimaginable.
Nonetheless, it will occur. It is beyond our control. It will be a product of the system that has been built as a house of cards. The triggering event will be either the collapse of a hedge fund, a large scale corporate bankruptcy which will cause bond defaults and defaults of associated derivative instruments, or the failure of a large bank or bond house which in turn will cause massive iliquidity among parties in derivatives trading. This sequence of events has already started, and on December 26, 2007, the day after Christmas, no single individual can predict where such events will take us and what the end game scenario will be.
What can be done by the 'average' person in this situation? For those who continue to 'DEPEND' on the old System and listen to the statements of those in power (essentially "we will take care of things/you"), it promises to be a rather stressful and challenging time (to say the least). For those with 'the Right Stuff' who are prepared to 'think the unthinkable', 'face the facts' as they reveal themselves, and ACT APPROPRIATELY, it will be a time of great opportunity and reward, in many ways and at many levels.
A person can ignore an oncoming crisis, and end up like the Jews in Nazi Germany who didn't listen because they didn't believe it could happen, or the victims of Katrina who KNEW the water would eventually win but did not prepare.
Or a person can simply be prepared for a crisis. Then if it turns out to only be cries of "the sky is falling" they are no worse off, and still prepared for an emergency.
Anyone who is watching what is happening in our government and in world governments, should be able to see the writing on the walls.
It's no big mystery.
Don is simply giving you an opportunity to be prepared.
On the other hand, you can hold the hand of a person who is falling down a well in order to save their life. But if they refuse to make an effort to save themselves, at some point when their weight is pulling you in behind them, you have to make a choice -- and my biological choice is to let go.
There are signs all around for those that read and understand; and here is just a tip of an ice berg; this process when fully implemented will be a major factor in the future and for the worse I must say! Joz
NAFTA Cementing a North American Union
Millions of Americans are now aware of the plan for a North American Union (NAU)/Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP). This awareness came via the Internet thanks to Phyllis Schafly and Dr. Jerome Corsi (video). Lou Dobbs has given it an extraordinary amount of exposure during his shows on CNN; the rest of CNN ignores it. The silence by ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, and FAUX (FOX) "news" networks has been deafening. The attack by legends in their own minds, i.e., pusillanimous individuals like Michael Medved, have been remarkable and a shame upon their so-called profession........ http://www.newswithviews.com/Devvy/kidd332.htm
by Devvy Kidd
Wow THANKS WYJOZ! I love that "legends in their own minds" ha HA HA!
I will never forget how NAFTA was mass-marketed to us with their doublespeak. All media parrotted that intelligent educated people supported NAFTA. It was only the uneducated working poor that were against it.
Hmmmm. . . . I am wondering if I have to PURCHASE that new license extra or is it part of my regular licensing procedure? Are they making me PURCHASE my citizenship in their NEW WORLD ORDER? What an Fing racket!
Do I HAVE to moderate my anger?
MY CONTRACT WITH AMERICA HAS BEEN VIOLATED. MY ANCESTORS CONTRACT WITH AMERICAN HAS BEEN VIOLATED. THIS IS NOT WHAT WE CAME HERE FOR.
Yes I would like to be an ostrich with my head in the sand but I have to remember that then my butt will be in the air.
Oh my. Haven't any of you entrepreneurial types noticed how the government has found so many new ways to tax any profit that you may make in your fledgling business?
This 3 in 1 ID is "voluntary" which probably means that it costs good bucks. It serves as a legal driver license but it appears that you will also need it to travel and it says that you need it to be eligible to work. Just as with initiatives that apply to foreign nationals in our custody first and then spread out to the rest of the population - maybe only the illegals will only need this document giving them the right to work - but eventually all of us will be required to purchase our right to work papers. And nowhere better to institute this new money grab but in a right to work state.
To obtain this new license you will need to present proof of citizenship, proof of identity and proof of residence. All things that we know very well can be forged by those who know how or have access to them. It is like a lock that only keeps an honest person out - the criminal will find a way to bust it open. A panacea that provides revenue. Lovely.
Also I saw a hellacious documentary on public television a few years ago. It showed how Janet Napolitano spent years working with Janet Reno in Florida perfecting how the government can remove a child from a home legally when there is no abuse occurring. Does this not sound like other repressive governments that we have been taught about in grade, middle and high school history? Or did they take those lessons out of the classroom by the time you came along so that you would be less likely to recognize the shameful signs when they occurred? Less likely to put two and two together. What a way to break a person's spirit - steal their child. ugh. Not enough people watched it though. Despite their airing this well made documentary she was elected and elected again. This issue meant less to people than other issues they thought she would help them with. They had to choose. Only when it happens to you do you realize how horrible it actually is. A perfect tool to break your opposition. With tools like this you can break them without having to actually put them in the Gulag. It is a beautiful plan. Much less messy. And all you need are some useful idiots to help you carry it out. They can be brainwashed and never recognize the crime that they are doing.
At the time I saw it my best friend was having problems with her children and the Department of Economic Security I believe. Now that her children are grown they admit that in court they as minor children they were given the option of vindictively putting their mother in jail. All they had to do was tell simple lies. They refused and now one of them is on a committee of former wards of the state that fights Janet Napolitano. I am so glad that she is able to see the truth and be active against it.
Maybe people get so lost in their jobs that they cannot see what they are participating in.
My own sister got run over by a truck and instead of sending someone to help her when she was stuck alone in bed laying in her own feces after the hospital released her? No the government sent a social worker that made a big stink about the situation, even got it in the papers and cost my sister future business by openly making a public ridicule of her stating that she was permanently unable to care for herself and lived in squalor thereby costing my sister all of her customers and making sure that when she recuperated that she would never have future business. The newspaper never felt obligated to print a retraction, an apology, something that would repair my sister's ability to make money and support herself. They destroyed her name and her business was attached to her name. The social worker did get fired but that did not repair my sister's business name.
Mmmm - this new license is "technologically advanced". Does that mean the chip - is this the precurser to the mark of the Beast? Oh well all those inmates that they have working at Motor Vehicles cuz it is cheaper? They will figure out a way around this really quick. They have used their position for crime for years. Better make friends with the inmates and save up some cash to line their pockets.
I want to know why is it that the illegals can sell tamales for less that what it costs me for ingredients? Are they shipping cheaper ingredients up from Mexico every day? What gives? Tamales now sell for less than what they have sold for in 25 years so my efforts to make money were thwarted. What resources do they have that they can do this? Is our government or charities subsidizing them so they can undercut me? Wouldn't be the first time.
Are they making me PURCHASE my citizenship in their NEW WORLD ORDER?
IT'S ALREADY DONE DEAL IT'S IN THE STAGES OF IMPLEMENTATION ! YOU KNOW HOW GOVERNMENT WORKS? lol
Do I HAVE to moderate my anger?
NOT IN THE LEAST !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SCREAM; BUT WHO WILL HEAR YOU? ***did you ever wonder why 'drugs' are pushed on everyone, even babies so freely?? 'drugged' people don't respond, resist, or stand up against <<<whatever it is that THEY are doing>>>
MY CONTRACT WITH AMERICA HAS BEEN VIOLATED.
the sad thing:::: this is posted as a <<<JOKE>>>> read my lips IT IS NOT A JOKE NOTHING HAPPENDS JOKINGLY as it is in the joke that the TRUTH is revealed !!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://www.bushspeaks.com/home.asp?did=60
MY ANCESTORS CONTRACT WITH AMERICAN HAS BEEN VIOLATED. THIS IS NOT WHAT WE CAME HERE FOR.
The sky is falling! The sky is falling!!! Coming crisis???
*steps gingerly out of THIS thread before falling into the black pit of despair*
If you knew anything that was coming, culminatively-historically, economically, spiritually, socially, globally.. you would carefully consider the wise cautions of others before belittling and ridiculing them.
If your awareness is bereft of such insights, allow others to share theirs without disparaging them. And if disagreement must be expressed, let it be done so agreeably.
If you could have but a small window into the unseen world - the spirit world - and that which is, and is to come; who is who, and what manipulates what, including the very incipiency of will, motives, and deepest thoughts and intents of the human heart, it would not be possible to say such things as you do.
If you knew what was coming prophetically, in accord to Divine Revelation, certainly your attitude toward life and others would be utterly and dramatically transformed.
There is nothing wrong with positive realism.
There is nothing wrong with good basic survival skills in the wilderness. The world is a wilderness.
There is nothing wrong with squirreling away for the winter.
There is nothing wrong with gathering, not for mere selfish gain or hoarding, but to share, to be a conduit of blessing for others.
There is nothing wrong with facing truth, not with despair, but in expectancy of a good outcome, based on wise preparation.
"A prudent man sees the evil and hides himself, The naive proceed and pay the penalty."
I can not hold my tongue any longer because this was fortold to me 25 years ago, or better, and I'm not talking about a "pyschic" fortelling.
I moved to Vermont 29 years ago, destined to get away from the sheer craziness of NYC and Long Island. I worked as a fashion coordinator for Saks Fith Ave, witnessed the greed of the fashion designers, and the stupidity of their wealthy clientel, and opted for a more simple life as waitress and ski bum in VT.
I soon became friends with a woman who is 9 years older, and extremely wise. Barb, is a "socialist" who started her own company out of concern for the needs of others. She opened a recycled clothing store, worked hard 7 days a week, and paid her employees way more than the minimum wage. I helped her a a weekly basis by ironing all the laundered garments, which she pre-washed and soaked, so that her customers could feel a sense of dignity upon buying used clothing. (I had a barter agreement with her for my work, afterall, I had a keen eye for fashion!)) All of this paid off for her because today, Barb, owns her own building outright, which she designed and had built by local construction workers. She put the money right back into the community which served her well.
We shared many hours, days and weeks together driving to Cape Cod to rumage through rag bins for bounty for her earlier store. Since we had time to chat during these adventures, she used to warn of the impending future of our economy, and simply stated that I should buy gold, whenever I could.
I had dinner with Barb a few months ago, and asked her if she ever took her own advice about buying the yellow metal that makes white man into murders? She said that she didn't, but I know she will never be hungry or cold, for she is a true survivor.
I am blessed to have worked with her, and learned some very valuable lessons about mankind.
Mr. Keiser, in your initial email you wrote to me: “The key to understanding the current situation is to understand that house prices, jobs, wages, and pensions in the US are all being attacked with original-issue debt dollar junk. This will continue until the middle class has been completely wiped out.” Can you elaborate on this, please?
Yes, it’s a Financial Holocaust. It is designed to destroy the American middle-class. We face an original-issue deflation, if you will. It is as if Michael Milken ran the Fed. If you look at the work of Steve Keen (http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/), an economist in Australia and one of a very few economists who got the crisis of the past three years accurate, you understand that the banking system does not work on a system where deposits are the basis for fractional reserve. The banking system works on the basis of loans used as the collateral for more loans.
That means that the origination of all the fractional reserve lending that is going on is just more debt. There are no retail deposit reserves or wholesale deposit reserves, just original issue dollar based junk debt. And when you understand that debt is at the bottom of the pyramid and that there’s no equity at all, or capital as this term is usually understood, then you understand that the banks and the policy makers are continuing a programme at the behest of Wall Street to commit a Financial Holocaust to eliminate the majority in America, which is the middle-class. Wall Street banks with their CDS's, High Frequency Trading and bogus market making are injecting the equivalent of financial Zyklon B into the American and world economy.
With regard to the U.S. economy, would you agree with Paul Krugman, who wrote not a long time ago that the lights in the U.S. are about to go out?
Paul Krugman is a salon monkey. You can quote me on that.
Okay, no problem (laughs).
He is a tool of the New York Times. If it wasn’t for the New York Times, no one would read Paul Krugman. He has absolutely nothing credible to say. He is merely a mouthpiece for neo-liberal clap-trap. Any minute you spend reading Paul Krugman is a minute of your life that you’ll never get back.
How does the mainstream media not only in the U.S., but in the Western hemisphere in general, play its part to ascertain its recipients that everything is more or less alright?
Well, the mainstream media is owned by the banking system. There is no widely disseminated media-outlet that is not owned by the banking system. Every media-outlet in the United States – Fox News, CNN, the New York Times etc. – is an extension of CNBC and James Cramer.
How do you feel in this context about the attempts to regulate the internet?
It’s a sad chapter in American history, because the internet came into being as the result of the good will of the American taxpayer. Now you have private corporations like Google and Verizon, who are stealing it. That’s unconscionable. It’s a hanging offense. If there would be any justice, the principles of Google and Verizon would be strung up and beaten.
Will those attempts have bad effects for the journalism that’s going on in the internet?
What is your take on the “Financial Reform Act” that passed Congress a few weeks ago? Does it deserve its name?
No. I’ve talked with Bill Black about this and he made all the salient points: it’s purely cosmetic, does nothing to address the structural problems and is dead on arrival.
You’ve already mentioned the problem of deflation. The Federal Reserve tries to fix this problem, allegedly, with a new round of quantative easing. Will this not make everything worse?
Well, getting back to the original question: the Fed can only issue debt. So they’re trying to fix the debt-deflation problem by issuing more debt. Whatever drugs Ben Bernanke is on, he should either take less, take more or change his prescription.
Related to the deflation in the U.S., many pundits compare the United States with the deflationary Japan of the early 1990’s until today. Do you agree with this analogy or do you rather share the opinion as it was expressed by Egon von Greyerz, the co-founder of “Matterhorn Asset Management AG” in Zurich, who said that the U.S. is in a very different situation than Japan was and is?
When Japan started their deflationary spiral, they had huge savings. America has no savings. The best comparison for me is to compare the U.S. in 2010 with Argentina in 2000.
Because the problem in America is that the bankers and the politicians conspire to loot the country of whatever money they can yet steal. We see a kleptocracy in action and the people will be left homeless and starving.
This is done by design?
People steal money on purpose (laughs). The kleptocrats steal money, because they want to steal money. They don’t accidently steal money. It’s done on purpose. It’s premeditated. Thieves steal money, because they want the money.
Let’s take a look at the crisis of the euro. It seems to be less acute for now, but it will come back, right?
Everything is going to be devaluated against gold.
And gold is not in a bubble?
Anyone who says gold is in a bubble, is talking out of their ass. When assets go into a bubble-price, you have an extremely popular ownership of that asset. Take for example the dotcom-stocks in the 1990’s or the S&P in the 1980’s – you had a very large percentage of the population participating in the formation of those bubbles. In the case of gold bullion, less than one per cent of the global investable assets are in gold. Not only isn’t it in a bubble, the real bull market in gold hasn’t even started. It’s still in a bear-market. Let me put it to you that way: gold is still in a bear-market.
During an interview with me, the President and Chief Investment Strategist of the investment research and wealth consulting firm SmartKnowledgeU, LLC (http://www.smartknowledgeu.com), J. S. Kim, told me the following: “I think if U.S. regulators stepped in and said Goldman Sachs, HSBC and JPMorgan couldn’t participate in the gold and silver futures-market for three weeks – I really think you would see the gold and silver price more than double in that time.”
Do you agree on that estimation?
Yes, he’s right. For instance in the case of JP Morgan, they have something like 30.000 contracts short in the silver futures-market. So if they would have to close up their shorts, the price of silver would at least double – and then it would start to really move higher.
Would you then also agree that the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, GATA, had a good reason to cause some trouble for the CFTC related to this problem?
The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee are a dedicated group of whistleblowers that I hope will continue in their work to expose the market-manipulations and insider-tradings that are plaguing the precious-metal markets.
What are your thoughts with regards to the recent statement by the central bank of China, the People’s Bank of China, to implement a regular gold market in its country, and that the commercial banks in India are asking the Indian central bank to do the same?
At the moment there is an enormous example of what you might call game-theory. There are China, Russia and Germany as the three biggest players in this global exercise of game-theory. One of those three countries will be the first to announce a gold-backed currency. At that moment, every other central bank in the world will have to announce a similar move, because if they don’t, then they risk losing a huge capital flight out of their currency. It is just a matter of time before one of these countries announces a gold-backed currency and the price of gold triples.
In the case of China, obviously they want to squeeze every last drop out of the brain-dead American consumer. When the American consumer has bought the last plastic toy and snow shovel made in China from Wal Mart that he can buy from the borrowed money on the 100th uncollateralized credit-card and they can’t hyper-consume one penny more, like the fat guy who eats the wafer at the end of the meal in the famous Monty Python sketch – who then explodes in a storm of half eaten foie gras and guts - then China will drop the bomb by announcing a gold-backed currency and the sale of a trillion in U.S.-government securities.
In the case of Germany, you really believe it would be able to issue a gold-backed currency?
Germany has always held on to their gold. Germany isn’t a country that is anxious to get rid of its gold. It has a very substantial position in gold and I am surprised that the Bundesbank has not announced increased purchase of gold yet. Maybe they have something cooking on the side, I don’t know. But I believe that the gnomes in Zurich and Berlin are smart enough to see what’s happening. They know that a country with a large gold position is going to do well.
One final question on precious metals: do you think that silver could outperform gold in the long run?
Okay, then let’s change the subject. What is your opinion on BP’s so called “oil spill”? Do we really get the information that we would need in order to assess the true magnitude of the catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico?
The most revealing aspect of the BP oil spill was that it showed to the world that America currently has no President.
In the sense that Mr. Obama is something like a doppelganger of Mr. Bush during Katrina?
Much worse. At least with Bush you knew where he stood. I believe with Obama there is nobody home. He is a ghost. He doesn’t do anything. He is a Manshurian Candidate, he is a robot, he is nothing. He has done nothing, he is doing nothing, he will never do anything. Obama is just waiting to get a job at Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan in three or four years time and that’s it. The White House is a way to improve his resume. The BP oil spill revealed that America is running with no leadership at all. There is nobody at the helm of the ship. It’s running wild with no leadership whatsoever.
Do you expect BP will go bankrupt because of the oil spill?
Well, the principles of BP are going to make lots of money, no matter what happens. The shareholders of BP are going to struggle, but the insiders of BP will be fine.
Will the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have effects for the price of oil and commodity prices in general?
The biggest driver in oil price has got to be the global contraction in production. The three biggest fields in the world, Ghawar in Saudi-Arabia, Burgan in Kuwait, and Cantarell in Mexico are the only super-fields we have. There has not been a super-field discovered in 20 years. Cantarell in Mexico is down sharply, so that Mexico will be an energy-importer soon. Burgan in Kuwait – down sharply. Ghawar in Saudi-Arabia – my sources tell me there are similar losses of production to Kuwait. Of course, the Saudis publicly say that their reserves are being replaced exactly as they have for the last ten years. But I have travelled in the region and have talked to people in the region. There is no reason to believe that this information is correct.
So the reserves are running out. This will obviously put a floor on the price of oil. Now, on the demand-side you still have strong demand in Asia and elsewhere in the world. The Peak-Oil story is really the number one driver. The BP aspect is a minor part of the overall Peak-Oil story.
Would you say that the Peak-Oil story deserves much more coverage and attention by the media, policy makers and so on?
The entire economy of the world runs on oil. This is a story that is ignored, because the implications are really catastrophic if the price of oil starts to run away. It would mean that all trade stops. So global trade would end as we know it and the current owners of the global media would be in the service of an entirely new set of power players at the top with America nowhere in site.
Therefore Peak Oil means the end of Globalization?
Globalization peaked as well about two or three years ago. We hit Peak Globalization. Globalization is on the wane.
One country with the largest deposits of oil and natural gas in the world is Iran. Do you think that the beating of the war drums, that we can hear at an increasing level, are much closer connected to this fact than to an alleged nuclear weapons programme?
Well, clearly it has always been the story since the 1970’s, that the world reserve currency, the US dollar, is backed by the Saudi Petrodollarization. Everything is related to the Saudi-Petrodollar story over the past 35 years. But the most interesting thing that I find related to the rumoured pending attack by Israel of Iran, is this: a few days ago, Harvard University divested themselves entirely out of all their Israeli investments. Why did they do that? In my view they anticipate that the United States will not be behind Israel when it will attack Iran. The United States will do to Israel what they did to South Vietnam, which is to say that they will abandon Israel. Nobody will support them. So the shekel and the Tel Aviv stock exchange are probably gonna be marked down by 80-90%. Harvard University obviously understands this. That’s why they dumped every shekel-based security they have in their portfolio, because that exchange is gonna go belly-up. Hold onto your matzahs, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.
Paul Craig Roberts wrote in an essay called “The Ecstacy of Empire: How close is America’s Demise?”, that was published this week, the following: “The United States and the welfare of its 300 million people cannot be restored unless the neocons, Wall Street, the corporations, and their servile slaves in Congress and the White House can be defeated. Without a revolution, Americans are history.”
Do you share my opinion that the United States belongs to the least places in the world, where a revolution has to be expected right now?
America died two years ago. It’s a walking dead-zombie country, and anybody who still lives in that country should get re-familiarize themselves with cotton-picking, because once the dollar crashes, the only crop that America will be able to export, is cotton. It will be King Cotton again. It will be 1840 again. The only job available will be as a cotton-picker working on a Wal Mart or Goldman Sachs plantation. This is the reality of the situation. There is no turning back at this point. The die has been cast. The American experience lasted from 1776 to 2008. Those were the years it was kicking ass and taking names. But the second Obama took office, who took Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner with him – it died. That was the end. Every day since then has been Post-America.
At the end of this interview I would like to know what you think about this PR-event by some of the most prominent billionaires in the U.S., who announced that they will donate a large portion of their wealth in order to disguise them as a noble bunch of philanthropists, I assume.
I think it would be better if those guys just paid their taxes. What percentage of the Fortune-500 companies pay tax? Something like only 10 per cent. How about just pay your taxes and shut up!
Thank you very much for taking your time, Mr. Keiser!
3 compare Egon v. Greyerz: “THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE DIP…”, published August 16, 2010 under: http://matterhornassetmanagement.com...no-double-dip/
Mr. von Greyerz stated with regards to the often used analogy between Japan and the United States: “In our view the US is in a totally different situation for the following reasons:
In the early 1990s Japan could still export their production to the rest of the world.
In the current downturn all countries (even China and India) will suffer and there will be no one to export the problems to.
The ability to export made Japan a creditor nation with major payment surpluses. US are a major debtor and have been for 25 years.
Japan had a very high personal savings ratio at the time (which has now disappeared). US has had a declining savings rate for years (the US savings rate is now going up which it always does in a downturn).
The balance of payments and the personal savings surpluses made it possible for Japan to finance their budget deficit without resorting to QE. Very soon he US will only be able to finance their deficits with QE and so will most of the rest of the Western world.
Japanese unemployment in 1992 was 2% and went slowly up to 5% by 2000 where it is now. Real US unemployment is 22% and increasing.
Many major sovereign states are now virtually bankrupt and the financial system is on life support. This was not the case in the 1990s.
The above are some of the reasons why the current US situation is totally different to Japan. QE will accelerate in the US and worldwide.“
4 compare Lars Schall:, “We Don’t Need Central Banks”, published at chaostheorien.de on March 15, 2010 under: http://www.chaostheorien.de/intervie...=%2Finterviews
7 compare. Toby Harnden: “Does Barack Obama want to be re-elected in 2012?”, published in The Telegraph on August 21, 2010 under: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...d-in-2012.html
In this article that was published a few days after the interview with Max Keiser (which was conducted on August 17) went online, Mr. Harnden states, that Obama “may already be preparing for a role as a post-president in a post-American world.“
Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession ... Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains. But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg. Rosenberg calls current economic conditions "a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession," and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered "euphoric response." – CNBC
Dominant Social Theme: All is well? Or maybe not?
Free-Market Analysis: In analyzing the memes of the Anglo-Americanpower elite and its seemingly berserker attempts at creating global governance, we face the conundrum of whether what is going on is part of a larger plan or the crumbling of a plan. This is not just a question for the Daily Bell but for readers, feedbackers and others who see the Western world from the standpoint of elite control of financial, military and sociopolitical mechanisms.
When it comes to the economy, we believe the outstanding, or pre-eminent dominant social theme is "the Western world faces an economic crisis but with a steady hand at the top from wise central bankers and with citizens willing to take the tough medicine of austerity all will be well."
But is this so? The Great Recession as it is now called, has spawned numerous cliches in the mainstream media, many of them medical terminology – as the powers-that-be struggle to maintain control of the message. Thus far we would argue they are holding, but barely. And if the larger global economy continues to unravel, we would guess that the more optimistic messages themselves will come under increasing strain.
What is the messaging? The West, and especially the spendthrift European PIGS, are likened to patients with pathologies and the cure, of course, is seen as one of discipline and "getting back to the basics" of thrift and saving. This perspective is commingled, of course, in this day and age, between the state and the individual, so that there is unfortunately no clear distinction. Greece, for instance, is portrayed as a nation of spendthrifts and its government merely representative of the larger problem.
Currently, as we stated above, the viewpoints of many citizens of the West when it comes to the economic crisis are colored by mainstream reporting. (How could they not be?) But this does not mean the reporting is in any sense accurate. In fact, the Bell's perspective, and one that seems to have touched a nerve within the blogosphere, is that the powers-that-be attempt to maintain control of civil society via fear-based promotions that are in a sense marketed by an elite-dominated mainstream media.
These promotions of necessity provide an authoritarian solution that has previously been put in place, often some sort of UN-oriented "fix" via that organization's myriad dysfunctional agencies or affiliations. However, there are also global solutions available via "non-governmental organizations" and quasi-independent bureaucracies set up to enforce treaties, trade agreements, etc. As we regularly point out, people are induced to give up power and control over their lives via these fear-based promotions and thus become more amenable to the command-and-control enterprises that are conveniently provided.
Over time, we've placed one more overlay on our perspective. We concluded after a good deal of study of historical elements that the history of humankind is in large part one of effective communication. Those who wish to control society – and there have been elites trying to do this since the rise of city states – depend on the creation of various memes (and the conflicts that result from such belief systems). These memes (religious, political and military, etc.) generally tell a story that organizes society to the benefit of its leaders.
But once in a while, especially in modern history, communicative technology begins to outpace the themes that the powers-that-be have inculcated. An alternative message begins to circulate and people begin to question not just what they are told day-to-day but even their fundamental or core societal beliefs. These beliefs may have to do with the inevitability of state control, the competence of current leadership, the reality of deities or a deity and many more. It is hard for people to question their core programming but we would argue that during an era of significant communication upheaval, such questioning occurs.
The precursor for such questioning is the availability and information and points of view that have not been available previously due to elite suppression. This may have happened, as the Bell has pointed out, during the era of the Gutenberg press (spawning the Renaissance, Reformation, etc.) and it is perhaps happening now as well during the era of the Internet. The process, we would argue, could be so far advanced in the modern era (having moved far faster that we expected) that it may not be reversible. While it would be easy for us here at the Bell to remain agnostic about elite promotions, we have taken up the challenge of trying to analyze the results of the collision between the Internet and elite dominant social themes as we have analyzed them.
We are trying to do what we suggest investors do in the 21st century, which is to evaluate whether elite memes remain believable (and thus viable tools for social organization) or whether they are beginning to crumble. What has been the result? The Internet is a most democratic place; the ever-increasing streams of traffic to the Bell would indicate that our perspectives on the economic crisis are, if not popular, at least compelling to a certain stratum of electronic readership.
We are not surprised, of course. We think such a historical perspective is a compelling one and is far more viable long-term than historical perspectives that emphasize sociopolitical trends, the "great man" theory of history etc. No, for us and for those feedbackers who stop by here (and educate us every day) modern history, especially, is a struggle between a powerful, monied, familial elite that uses an intergenerational toolkit to help control society and new technologies that broadcast information antithetical to elite theses.
So let us now return to the question we asked at the beginning of this article: Whether what is going on is part of a larger plan or the crumbling of a plan. Having decided NOT to be agnostic, we will answer tentatively, as we have before, that the elite plan insofar as the economy is concerned is "crumbling." There is no way that the powers-that-be in our estimation do not understand fully the ramifications of the fiat-money, central banking boom-bust system that has been foisted on the West over the past 40 years. But we think, as we have stated before, that the elite miscalculated the impact of the inevitable results.
Not for us is the prevailing point of view among the Internet's "conspiracy" sites that the powers-that-be are infallible or all-powerful. Enormous amounts of money and the ability to control governments (which we too perceive the elite has) are great advantages, but the invisible hand of the marketplace itself is even stronger than elite control. This is yet a third overlay of analysis that we have offered and a most important one. If one concludes that the free-market itself is overwhelming the elite promotional agenda, then further complexities arise and additional judgments have to be made.
It is our humble opinion that a market backlash against the West's central banking economy, when combined with the truth-telling of the Internet is causing a historical rupture in terms of elite planning. We think it may even cause the elite to take a step back at some point, and to abandon what would seem their plans and timelines regarding ever-more-centralized Western governance.
We do not believe at this point that the elite is in control of events. It is a fact that the powers-that-be were panicked by the swirl of radicalism and discontent caused by the Great Depression. It is our perspective that World War II was possibly, in part, an elite solution to the discontent caused by the failure of the elite's central banking-oriented economy. But we do not believe that the elite is capable at this moment of fomenting another world war.
The wealthiest, elite families apparently seek control, not more "money." Control, in fact, is an organizational force that likely guides their actions. But they are confronted today by forces beyond their control. The market itself is undermining the West's central-banking (boom-and-bust) economy. And the truth-telling of the Internet is undermining the credibility of the system itself and the rationale for its configuration. In both Europe and America the same question arises: How can tiny groups of men (central bankers) predict the volume and rate of money necessary for complex economies? In fact, they cannot. Central banking is a form of price fixing that ultimately causes queues, scarcity, rationing and economic ruination.
Sometimes those in charge of this perverse system can "re-stimulate" by printing yet more money, but not in this case.
In this case, as we have argued previously many times, the bust is a generic one. Fiat money itself – and especially the reserve currency of the dollar – has been compromised. Inevitably, some sort of new economic and monetary system is going to arise. We have argued that it may well be gold based, or gold-and-silver-based, and we see no reason to revise our perspective. (sic: Carpe Gold/Silver)
In the CNBC article excerpted above, we can see questions continue to percolate about what really is happening during this Great Recession. In fact, in America especially, unemployment is estimated at 20 percent or more. (We think it is even higher.) In Europe, the economic crisis has not abated and frustrations are building over "austerity" measures in Greece and elsewhere. Countries like Spain are taking desperate measures to prop up bond markets. Here is what the UK Telegraph had to say on the matter just yesterday:
Spain uses social security fund to prop up the bond market ... Spain is putting all its eggs into one basket, and if it carries on like this, we may start to see a lot of Basques and Catalans crowding into one exit. The state pension fund – the €64bn Fondo de Reserva, known as the 'hucha de las pensiones' – is buying Spanish sovereign debt at a vertiginous pace. The financial daily Cinco Dias reports that the share of the Fondo's total portfolio invested in Spanish government bonds rose from below 50pc in 2007 to 76pc in 2009. ... Evidently, Spanish savers are underpinning Madrid's Treasury auctions, whether they like or not. It is they who are mopping up the debt along with the European Central Bank as foreign creditors stay away. The Bank of New York Mellon said that its iFlow data on bonds reveal that foreign demand for Spanish debt has "dried up" again after a brief recovery in July. There has also been some "net selling" of French bonds. ... We will hear more of that Gallic sub-plot over the next year.
In America the situation does not seem much better. While it is always difficult to divine Federal Reserve intentions, we began arguing well over a year ago (long before it was popular) that the Fed was losing credibility and that it would come under significant pressure in terms of its operations. We would argue this has indeed happened and that the result is increasingly one of stagnation. The Fed, and Ben Bernanke himself, are afraid to take bold steps because of the pressure of the attacks that are underway. The Fed as an institution is somewhat paralyzed at this point. Yesterday an interesting article was issued in the US Philadelphia Bulletin on this matter, as follows:
The Federal Reserve's Historic Announcement ... Mark it down. At 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday, August 10, 2010, the U.S. Federal Reserve made a historic announcement. It signaled that the central bank was going to "preserve the size of its balance sheet." The announcement didn't sound all that dramatic, but don't be fooled. In the two subsequent days, the stock market fell over 300 points, and the price of gold rose $20. The Fed's balance sheet, which historically consisted of nearly 100 percent U.S. Treasury securities, has grown in size from about $850 billion to a towering $2.3 trillion (or $2,300 billion) currently. In the middle of the financial crisis two years ago, the Fed expanded its holding of securities by purchasing lower-quality, mortgage-backed debt securities primarily from our nation's domestic banking system. The need for this balance sheet expansion was to provide massive liquidity for our entire financial system. ... The political class in Washington will see the Fed's announcement as a potential gold mine. They will no doubt attempt to mine it for all it's worth. The significantly rising risk is that the accumulation of future government debt attended to this process will result in hyperinflation rather than a garden-variety, modest inflation. Hyperinflation occurs when there is a total collapse of confidence in a currency. A central bank that is willing to simply print money out of thin air to finance unlimited amounts of debt will eventually undermine the confidence in the currency being managed as lenders eventually seize on the realization that they will never be paid back in anything other than worthless paper. The road to hell is indeed paved with good intentions.
In this article we have presented an argument that the current economic system is not rebounding as the mainstream media has advertised. The twin forces of the Internet and the free-market itself have provided a powerful countervailing force to "recovery" (or even claims or recovery) – and we expect this state of affairs to continue. The power elite that has evidently and obviously organized the current Western economic system has a stake in its survival; we would argue that while a certain amount of chaos is appreciated by the elite as it strives for evermore financial consolidation, the kind of chaos that now threatens the system is beyond what was expected.
What can the elite do? A world war would doubtless kick-start the Western world's monetary engine (as books like General Smedley Butler's "War Is a Racket" explain) but in the nuclear age such a war is difficult to mount. The unraveling of the current system may eventually give rise to calls for a new economic system, but this is not the 20th century. A convocation of wise men will only fuel the current anger and disdain that many have for the current central banking economy. The alternative, as we see it, is to take piecemeal steps toward "something else" – and this the elite may be trying to do through the IMF and its SDRs. But even here, there has already been considerable speculation as to what the IMF powers-that-be have in mind. Where has the speculation occurred – on the Internet of course.
The apparent tools of the elite – war, economic chaos and dominant social themes – are increasingly of questionable value in the 21st century. We do not argue that such tools are useless or that the elite will not succeed in maintaining the control it already has. But we do submit that things are not getting any better and that they may even get worse. If they do, the ramifications could be as meaningful as anything that happened 500 years ago with the advent of the Gutenberg press. This is what we think people should be paying attention to. The next few years – even the next few months – could be a critical time for Western economies and even for the larger elite configuration of society itself.
Ultimately, we will survive.. hasn't humankind always survived the worst of disasters? The global financial crisis is chick feed compared to the crises the world has faced in the past.
This time it will be world wide and the last final crisis...and it will be a lot worse than chicken feed !!!!!...only 1/3 of mankind will survive..... of that great magnitude....not many have a clue of how bad it will be!!!!! !
ahaha~!~ Don.... so we know about the 2/3 will perish and 1/3 will survive !!!!
re: thanks for your thoughtful posts, Don, but I have the same ?
as I always ask another friend of mine, and it is thus:
those of us with even an inkling of intelligence know that there is a mighty big locomotive coming, and we are all heralding it, to deaf ears, an awfully lot of the time, unfortunately.
but that's not my beef, really. my problem is that even though both you and my other friend recommend buying silver, that's good. unfortunately, even if those informed among us, go out and buy silver, how is that going to stop the train from derailing, exactly?
my partner and I have been steadily permaculturing our measly 1/3 acre and grow most of our own produce and food, don't watch the tele, and rarely buy anything "new", including cars, but still, that's just helping our situation, and not doing much to stop the train from jumping the tracks on a global scale, really.
my question is that short of massive revolution, which may be impossible given the deaf ears that abound, and the egos that end up getting engaged; how do we stop the coming economic disaster?
Even 1 million people, standing in front of a locomotive, will not serve to stop the train. So..........what is the answer?
It seems to me that an awfully lot of people are continually sounding the alarm, but nobody really has an answer as to how to stop the train, collectively. Which is my biggest problem with sounding the alarm. What good does it do, if there is no readily apparent solution proposed, that will help change the course of the train?
Do you see where I am going with this? I find it personally frustrating that there aren't more people working towards subverting and undermining the powers that be, or if there are, we don't know who they are, or how to get on board that particular train. Is it invite, only, do you suppose? I like to believe there is a faction of government, like Taylor Caldwell talks about, in her book: The Devil's Advocate; working quietly and persistently, to change things, but alas, the only thing I have to cling to in this regard, is Faith, as I haven't been invited into the sanctum sanctorum.